Postulated: forgone conclusions are not fun. If you know before you roll the dice that there's no way to get a certain outcome, why roll?
Proposed: this is why people don't like taking sums of dice pools.
The fact that the floor of the sum of a dice pool shifts is problematic in a different way than that the peak of its bell curve shifts or than that its ceiling shifts. Look at the probability of rolling a certain sum or greater on 1-4 dice:
# | 1D | 2D | 3D | 4D |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 100.00% | |||
2 | 83.30% | 100.00% | ||
3 | 66.70% | 97.20% | 100.00% | |
4 | 50.00% | 91.70% | 99.50% | 100.00% |
5 | 33.30% | 83.30% | 98.10% | 99.90% |
6 | 16.70% | 72.20% | 95.40% | 99.60% |
7 | 58.30% | 90.70% | 98.80% | |
8 | 41.70% | 83.80% | 97.30% | |
9 | 27.80% | 74.10% | 94.60% | |
10 | 16.70% | 62.50% | 90.30% | |
11 | 8.30% | 50.00% | 84.10% | |
12 | 2.80% | 37.50% | 76.10% | |
13 | 25.90% | 66.40% | ||
14 | 16.20% | 55.60% | ||
15 | 9.30% | 44.40% | ||
16 | 4.60% | 33.60% | ||
17 | 1.90% | 23.90% | ||
18 | 0.50% | 15.90% | ||
19 | 9.70% | |||
20 | 5.40% | |||
21 | 2.70% | |||
22 | 1.20% | |||
23 | 0.40% | |||
24 | 0.10% |
The floor moving is bad because it creates forgone conclusions by opening gaps in the outcome range of the smaller dice pools. It also creates them by shifting the 100% to outcomes that had previously not been 100%. We don't see either of those problems when we subtract the number of dice rolled from the sum:
# | 1D | 2D | 3D | 4D |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
1 | 83.30% | 97.20% | 99.50% | 99.90% |
2 | 66.70% | 91.70% | 98.10% | 99.60% |
3 | 50.00% | 83.30% | 95.40% | 98.80% |
4 | 33.30% | 72.20% | 90.70% | 97.30% |
5 | 16.70% | 58.30% | 83.80% | 94.60% |
6 | 41.70% | 74.10% | 90.30% | |
7 | 27.80% | 62.50% | 84.10% | |
8 | 16.70% | 50.00% | 76.10% | |
9 | 8.30% | 37.50% | 66.40% | |
10 | 2.80% | 25.90% | 55.60% | |
11 | 16.20% | 44.40% | ||
12 | 9.30% | 33.60% | ||
13 | 4.60% | 23.90% | ||
14 | 1.90% | 15.90% | ||
15 | 0.50% | 9.70% | ||
16 | 5.40% | |||
17 | 2.70% | |||
18 | 1.20% | |||
19 | 0.40% | |||
20 | 0.10% |
This also makes the tiers of possible outcomes go up by 5s which is a lot easier to deal with mentally than going up by 6s (unless you're Count Rugen).
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